Nuclear Iran

Iran announced it will begin enriching uranium at 20%, in what might be the final nail in the coffin of the ‘nuclear deal’. Perhaps is it a risky gamble to put pressure on the Biden administration, but in any case, it enshrines the failure of Trump’s ‘maximal pressure’ strategy.

The Islamic Republic of Iran announced on January the 4th that it would seek to enrich uranium at 20%, in a continuation of their gradual yet controlled violation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) – nicknamed ‘nuclear deal’ or the ‘Iran deal’ by most english language medias. This would bring them closer to possessing military-grade uranium, a feat neither the US nor Israel is likely to accept.

Signed on July 14th, 2015, in Vienna by the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council, Germany, (the 5+1) and Iran, the JCPoA planned for the withdrawal of some of the economic sanctions weighting on Teheran’s economy in exchange for the country delaying its ‘breakout time’ to a year sine die. The breakout time refers to the time needed to enrich enough uranium to build a nuclear weapon. A body of control in collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was to regularly inspect Iran’s drastically reduced nuclear installations, namely uranium centrifuge and its heavy water reactor in Arak. In addition to this, the Islamic Republic was prohibited from keeping over 300kg of enriched uranium.

The agreement ended decades of Iranian isolation and demonization (think of George W. Bush’s “Axis of Evil”), which spanned from the 1979 seizure of power by the fundamentalists under the ayatollah Khomeini until the JCPoA was signed. Prior to the revolution, Iran was a relatively stable US ally governed by the Shah (essentially a monarch), but mounting economic difficulties, years of US interference, and disastrous ‘human right export’ policies of then US president Jimmy Carter led to its overthrow. Mohammed Reza Pahlavi (the overthrown monarch) would go on to finish his life in a miserable exile, while Khomeini asserted his control over the country, relying on the Guardians of the Revolution, Shariah law, and the army. Following the famous assault on the American embassy (to protest the Shah being granted asylum in the US) and eight years of a devastating war against Iraq, the country found itself completely isolated in the international area.

The US imposed harsh economic sanctions on the young republic which crippled what was left of its economy and because of US laws’ extraterritoriality, the sanctions led to Iran essentially living in autarky (except for some exports of oil to China and a few minor countries). Following a pattern of thoughts similar to that of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Iran sought to acquire nuclear weapons to ensure its safety from possible US intervention. Targeted strikes from US-backed Israel prevented this from happening although the country possesses an impressive conventional arsenal.

In 2015 however, under the presidency of Barack Obama, a breakthrough was made in coming to terms with Iran when the JCPoA was signed. Sanctions started being alleviated as Teheran collaborated and showed good will in its control of its nuclear programme. The agreement was regarded as tremendous progress – essentially bringing Iran back inside the concert of nations – by some of Washington’s more liberal (in the international relations sense of the term) policy makers, while hawkish ones such as John Bolton or Mike Pompeo believed it represented a dangerous disgraceful national capitulation, only handing Iran the tools to better threaten US interests. This means that when the latter managed to influence the 45th POTUS to listen to their advice, the deal was scrapped.

Europeans stood and watched, making more noise than anything else as the US pulled out of the agreement. Iran then started a series of gradual provocations, from re-increasing its enrichment capacities to attacking super tankers in the Hormuz strait, from drone-striking an oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia (its main regional rival) to logistically backing chia militias in Iraq and lead them to shoot rockers on a US military base. The US responded by completely re-establishing pre-JCPoA sanctions (even expanding their scope) in what they described as a strategy of ‘maximal pressure’, aiming at bringing the Iranian economy to its knees.

While judging which strategy is correct is beyond the scope of this article (and a hot topic of debate among experts), it should be said that the timing is most unfortunate as the current Iranian president, Hassan Rohani, belongs to the traditionally outvoted reformist side, and the current US behaviour can only comfort hardliners positions such as that of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Other interferences such as the assassination of the influent general Soleimani, or that of the father of Iran’s nuclear programme Mohsen Fakhrizadeh will only further cement the public opinion against the US, a feat Washington could do without.

The country is at a crossroad, having experienced major protests over the past years, the power does not rest on a solid base and a single spark could blow the powder keg. However, Uncle Sam collapsing yet another country in the Middle East may not prove the smartest move to make… Iran is set to have presidential elections on 18th of June, in which Rohani cannot run because of the two-term limit. By then one can only hope the Biden administration will have re-established communication channels other than that of pure show of force and provocations. While it is not desirable to see the current regime stay in power, the US by now should have empirically discovered that a bad leader is better than chaos, and compromises more effective than adamantly refusing to forego any objective.

Further Readings:

Iran resumes enriching uranium to 20% purity at Fordo facility

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