The war you never heard of
- 82newsbulletin
- Oct 24, 2020
- 2 min read
Written by Guignard Nicolas
If you were asked to locate Nagorno-Karabakh on a map, do you think your guess would be within a 100km range of the actual location of the disputed region? What if I told you that this territory has been the terrain of a frozen conflict over the past 30 years. A frozen conflict which recently became much warmer when two armies clashed causing over 100 deaths.
Those two armies are not the Indian National Army and the People's Liberation Army, but that of Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh is a region officially belonging to Azerbaijan, but de facto controlled by Armenia since the 1994 conflict between the two countries. The Azeri population (around 1 million) was moved out of the Republic of Artsakh – the name given by Armenia to the local government – and despite regular skirmishes of various sizes, war never broke out again.
Five days ago however, severe clashes occurred, and war seems likely to occur. The circumstances are unclear, but it appears that Azeri forces crossed the border into the disputed territory and started reconquering what they consider to be rightfully theirs. Reports are unclear, but they reportedly gained ground, conquering several villages and the strategically important Mount Mourovdag.
Shia populated Azerbaijan is backed militarily and politically by Turkey, which sees Christian Armenia as “The greatest threat to peace in the region” (dixit its president Recep Tayyip Erdogan). Turkey has terrible relations with Armenia, partly due to unresolved territorial claims, but also to its denial of the 1915 Armenian genocide which caused way over 1 million deaths, which Turkey – then the Ottoman Empire – perpetrated. It is also dependent on Azeri oil and gas exports.
Turkey declines being involved, in spite of several reports of its fighter jets and drones flying over the region, including some by Turkey pro-government newspapers.
Russia, former overlord of the region, is closer to Erevan than Baku, but also arms both countries and supports the status quo to bolster its armaments exports to the region. The conflict could be the occasion for Putin to gain further influence in a region where Russia is the already most important economic player.
Should war break out, it is likely to be another proxy war fought between Moscow and Ankara, similarly to those in Syria and Libya, in which both countries support opposing factions.
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