Turkey: troubles brewing inside NATO

Written by Nicolas Guignard

Historically, Turkey had been a much better member of NATO than France. Until recently. France withdrew from NATO’s integrated military command in March 1966 pushed by Charles de Gaulle’s dreams of French exceptionalism. France – through the beautiful words of its prime minister Dominique de Villepin – vilified the American invasion of Iraq in 2003 while Turkey joined the international coalition. Turkey’s defence budget is over 3% of its GDP, while France has consistently failed to meet the 2% requirement.

However, France has always respected the military alliance, has honoured its commitments and acted in the interest of the alliance. Until the 2016 failed putsch against Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey also was a reliable member. Erdogan was elected prime minister in 2002 along with the AKP, a conservativo-islamic party. Since the putsch, Erdogan has been granted enormous power by a constitutional reform, has cracked down on dissidence and now holds Turkey with an iron grip. This slide towards illiberal democracy has led many observers to become increasingly concerned with his neo-ottoman policies weakening Turkey’s position as a stable democratic bastion in the middle east.

His relationship with the US turned sour after their refusal to extradite opponent Fethullah Gülen (accused of being the instigator of the 2016 putsch), and the purchase by Turkey of Russia’s AA system S-400. This last point is especially crucial and epitomizes Erdogan’s foreign policy’s shift, from resolutely turned westward towards new alliances with NATO enemies. Erdogan also renewed claims in the Aegean Sea against Greece. While arguably justified, those claims greatly weaken NATO by showing how divided its members are. It further damages the already complex relationship between the two NATO members and shows the recklessness with which Erdogan can turn on an allied nation.

Erdogan also pursued a neo-ottoman foreign policy, seizing a substantial portion of Syria’s territory during its Euphrates Shield operation. Their operation in Syria aim at cracking down on Kurdish forces, which are regarded as terrorists by Turkey but have been faithful and effective allies of NATO in their fight against ISIS. Turkey provides logistical, financial and military support to Azerbaijan’s war of aggression in Nagorno-Karabakh, which shattered the fragile peace that existed in the region. In Libya, Erdogan’s Turkey supports the Government of National Accord by supplying them weapons, soldiers and funding, in what has become a proxy war with Russia, further disintegrating the country and accelerating its descent into complete chaos. Similarly, Turkey supports various factions in Iraq, Yemen and Somalia, and their interest rarely aligns with that of other NATO members, and more often than not aims at destabilizing fragile peace efforts.

In addition to this rogue, illiberal behaviour, Turkey has also recently challenged France. This summer, a Turkish warship almost opened fire on a French vessel flying the NATO flag. This clearly was no accident but deliberate provocation. Now Erdogan sided with other Islamists by doubting Macron’s mental health and calling for a boycott of French products after president Macron publicly supported Charlie Hebdo’s caricaturists in the aftermath of a terror attack which saw a high-school teacher beheaded by a Chechen political refugee. France has recalled its ambassador, and the whole of NATO is likely to not let such disgraceful behaviour slip. Turkey most likely has crossed a line it should not have crossed, and the West will need to make tremendous effort to bring back a key ally in its zone of influence. Should it fail to do so, Erdogan will be free to further destroy any remnant of the rule of law inside Turkey’s borders, further destabilize its neighbours and potentially join an alliance with China which would greatly weaken the USA’s position in the middle east.

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